https://harici.com.tr/tayvan-ikinci-trump-donemine-hazirlaniyor/
Taiwan prepares for the second Trump era
After Donald Trump won the US presidential election this week, the Taiwan administration, which bound its defense to the US, lined up to improve relations. Trump had previously argued that Taiwan had to pay the US for its defense, and even said that Taiwan took the chip business away from the US.
What Trump will establish a relationship with Taiwan is one of the most important questions about his second presidency. Although the US says it respects Beijing's sovereignty under the principle of one China and does not recognize Taiwan's independence, it is by far Taipei's most important political and security partner and strengthens its defensive capabilities by arming Taiwan and training its military units.
Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te and Secretary of State Lin Chia-lung did not delay in celebrating Trump. Lin said Taiwan, a key semiconductor force, will be a crucial player in helping the elected president realize the slogan “Make America Great Again.”
"Taiwan is confident that we will cooperate well with the new Trump team," he told Nikkei Asia, one of the government's heavyweights, on condition that his name was not disclosed.
“China will work hard to spread skepticism against the US and Lai and will try everything to divide Taiwan and the United States,” the official said. However, in Trump's previous period, many high-level officials had great interactions and collaborations with Taiwan," he said.
Nevertheless, the new pres
ident is known for his operational approach to diplomacy and his emphasis on commercial tariffs. Taiwan will closely monitor Trump's cabinet appointments—especially his foreign and defense portfolios—his response to the Ukrainian war, his demands from traditional security partners in Europe and Asia, and whether he will double the trade war with China.
Experts expect the Taiwan government to call for increasing defense spending and accelerating military reforms.
Ivan Kanapathy, a senior national security official in Trump's first administration, said: “President Trump's approach to 'peace through power' means that our enemies will once again be discouraged and our partners will take on more burden on international security.”
"We must ensure that Taiwan's determination to defend itself and the importance of Taiwan's economic security and strategic geopolitical position," Taiwan's Defence Minister Wellington Koo said in a statement on Tuesday, regardless of the winner of the US elections.
However, some high-ranking figures of the main opposition party Kuomintang, which wants to establish closer relations with China, expressed their reservations about increasing military spending, questioning the reasons why the US forced Taiwan to do so. Weng Hsiao-ling, one of the leading deputies of KMT, recently told Nikkei Asia that he is against significant increase in the defense budget.
Chieh-Ting Yeh, one of the directors of the US Taiwan Watch think tank, suggested on Wednesday that Taiwan should reach out to people close to Trump beyond diplomatic and political circles.
“Taiwan's political leaders need to establish relationships with people who know and have influence on Trump in Wall Street, Silicon Valley and other areas,” Yeh said during a debate at the Taiwan Foreign Reporters Club (TFCC). "There will be much more unpredictability in terms of policies," he added.
Courtney Donovan Smith, former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Taichung and commentator, reminded that Trump had some officials in the first White House that “want to help Taiwan to be stubborn to China or as a trump card against China.”
"They didn't really value Taiwan on their own," Smith told the TFCC. But Smith said there are also high-ranking figures actively supporting Taiwan, such as national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: “Pompeo, for example, ... really understood Taiwan and Taiwan's role in the world.”
After Lai wrote this week in X that he believed “the long-standing Taiwan-US partnership built on common values and interests would continue to be a cornerstone for regional stability and lead to greater prosperity,” Trump's other former national security adviser, Robert O'Brien, thanked him for “congratulating our next president.”
In the internal correspondence of a large US consulting company seen by Nikkei Asia, O'Brien is shown as Trump's most likely candidate for secretary of state, and Pompeo is the second most likely candidate to be the secretary of defense.
Republican senator Tom Cotton, who is at the forefront of the defense department, had previously called on Washington to change Taiwan's policy. Instead of the "strategic ambiguity" that meant deliberately creating uncertainty in Beijing and Taipei on whether the US would intervene in a war, he called for "strategic clarity", which essentially said that America would defend Taiwan if China attacked.
Experts are of the opinion that Taiwan's defacto representation in the US will also be key to manage bilateral relations.
Sources in Taipei and Washington say Taiwan may consider appointing a new de facto U.S. ambassador to replace Alexander Yui, as Trump's return has changed the criteria for an effective ambassador.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's new de facto US deputy ambassador Andrea Yi-Shan Yang is seen as an important channel. He is a person who worked closely with President Lai and Foreign Minister Lin, served as deputy secretary general of the Democratic Progress Party, and was educated in Australia and England.
These ambassadors are not officially recognized by China and the USA. They carry out a de facto task of 'facilitating' relations
“Yang is extremely talented, he can speak directly with Lin and Lai, and can communicate effectively with decision-makers in Washington,” said Raymond Sung, vice president of the Prospect Foundation's think tank, in a speech to the TFCC, adding: “A talented and reliable channel for DIP leadership in the U.S.”
Regarding Trump's appointments, Sung said, "We are in safe hands as long as senior ministers are elected from professionals instead of Elon Musk or his like."
At a separate TFCC briefing on Friday, Taiwan's Environment Minister Peng Chi-ming said change in Washington would not be a “big problem,” maintaining optimism about technology and climate cooperation with the US.
“I think the U.S. needs Taiwan – supply chain support and also chip support – so I think the relationship won't change much,” Peng said.
Although Trump initially pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, Peng said that the decarbonization of supply chains was driven not only by governments but also by the private sector.
Referring to electric vehicles, offshore wind farms and other renewable energy sources, Peng said, "I think President Trump will not give up on climate technology." He also said he hopes to visit the United States for talks in the next four years.
Meanwhile, Taiwanese's Economy Minister Kuo Jyh-huei said on Thursday that given the risk of tariffs, the government will “help Taiwanese companies move their manufacturing bases outside of China.”
Nick Marro, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warned that the pressure on these supply chains could increase as Trump strengthens technology exports controls and other restrictions against China's chip ambitions.
“Another China-U.S. trade war could support the urgency of Taiwan Inc. to shift its supply chains to Southeast Asia or India,” Marro said. “But given China's low-cost manufacturing ecosystem, talent pools and sophisticated industrial clusters, Taiwanese firms are unlikely to move en mass out of China,” he added.